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History repeats: IBM against Apple then, now Android vs iPhone

If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable the Man be of learning from experience.
George Bernard Shaw
Irish playwright and socialist (1856 – 1950)

History, ironically, tends to repeat its self. This may be old news in the political, economic or historical, but what happens in hardware / software industry?.

As I read some articles on the web about the market share of mobile operating system today / tomorrow, a "pattern" began to emerge before my eyes. There's something about this pattern that indicates which mobile operating system will have significant market share maybe two years from now or before. As predict the near future belongs to Linux mobile operating system Android.

Ok you can have sound like fools … but Please be patient and let me (try to) explain what are the historical similarities between the IBM-Apple war then, and Apple (IOS) Google (Android) now and how will probably be the end of this struggle in the table of market share pie. So grab a cup of coffee and open your mind!

Keywords: IBM, Microsoft, Apple, Linux, open / closed source / hardware / architecture.

Historical events …

Before 1980, there was chaos …. Incompatibility deferens in hardware platforms and software, less or no industry standards, where some of the troubbles on the market. Despite the presence of informal rules that allowed a fair measure of interoperability between different equipment from different manufacturers, no company controlled the industry. Apple was founded on April 1, 1976 by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak and Ronald Wayne. His hand-built Apple I was first shown to the public at the Homebrew Computer Club as a personal computer kit that was sold as a motherboard with the CPU, RAM, and text-based chip-video. In December 1979, Jobs and several Apple employees visited Xerox PARC to see the Xerox Alto. Jobs immediately convinced that all future computers using a graphical user interface, so he quickly pushed the development of a graphical user interface for the Apple Lisa computer.

Meanwhile, Microsoft entered the operating business in 1980 with his own version of Unix called Xenix. However, IBM awarded a contract to Microsoft to offer a version the CP / M operating system, which was created to be used in the next IBM Personal Computer. Under this agreement, Microsoft purchased a CP / M clone called 86-DOS to Seattle Computer Products, the brand as MS-DOS, which IBM renamed to PC-DOS.

The Board is set … and now the fun begins …

In 1981, IBM entered finally in the microcomputer market with a machine that was very unusual for its standards, largely coming from the external component suppliers, technically unambitious running third-party operating systems, and, above all, he had an open architecture (somehow this reminds me of how a distribution Linux is based). It was called the IBM PC (Personal Computer).

IBM PC 5150

Again … IBM decided to go on an architecture open to other manufacturers could produce and sell peripheral components and compatible software without purchasing licenses. IBM also sold IBM PC Technical Reference Manual which includes full circuit diagrams, a listing of the ROM BIOS source code and engineering and other programming information. IBM announced the PC on August 12, 1981. Six weeks later, in Fall COMDEX, Tecmar had 20 PC products available for sale. Thanks to the open nature of the PC architecture, PC before there were thousands of different third-party add-in cards and software packages available for nearly any purpose imaginable. This made the PC the only viable option for many, since the PC was the only platform that supports all hardware and software you need, allowing the PC to grab the business market, a market with very different software requirements from customer to customer.

industry competitors is one of several approaches to market development, which was to build a machine that duplication of the IBM PC as much as possible and sell it for a slightly lower price, or higher performance. two leaders at the beginning of the latter strategy were start-ups: Columbia and Compaq Computer. They were the first to reach the very strong reputation for compatibility with the IBM machines, which meant he could run software written for the IBM machine without recompilation. This meant for software companies, it was wise to write for the IBM PC and its clones as a high priority and port versions for less common systems at leisure. Even thought Apple had the "lovely" Lisa graphical desktop (1983) became the first personal computer sold to the public interface Graphical user, was a commercial failure due to its high price, limited software titles, and because of the "ugly" MS-DOS was available for more machine called the IBM PC clones. Since around 1984, Microsoft were making huge profits from sales of both DOS to IBM and an increasingly growing list of other manufacturers had agreed to buy a license for MS-DOS for all the machines they made (and clones PC). For the team competition of manufacturers, large or small, the only common factors combined to provide technical leadership of Microsoft operating software, and Intel CPUs. In essence, during most of the 1980's and early 1990, the main engines that are spoken in the press and guides doing so, were from IBM and IBM PC clones.

Nobody is perfect …

Even thought open architecture "was the way forward" with many manufacturers supplying the market with the IBM PC clones "pre-loaded" with the Microsoft MS-DOS and most of the buying market faster and cheap compatible with IBM machines made by other companies, in 1987, IBM made a bold and ultimately disastrous business decision. IBM chose to "follow the path of Apple" and presented its PS / 2 line. The PS / 2 compatible software is maintained, but the hardware was very different, which means that no of the millions of existing additional cards work. The new IBM machines, in other words, were not compatible with IBM. In addition, IBM planned the PS / 2, so that both technical and legal reasons it would be difficult to clone in a similar way that Apple produce their products. A final of the 1980 and the beginning of the 1990 IBM took a disastrous second planning to replace the much higher DOS OS / 2. In response, Microsoft preferred to push the IBM PC and clones established industry in the direction of their own product, called Windows thatbecame de-facto standard. IBM I finally gave up its role as a manufacturer of PC in April 2005, when it sold its PC division to Lenovo for $ 1.75 billion.

At the beginning of the 21st century the dominant "IBM PC compatible (clone)" platform, with millions of "home-built computer" that are assembled from components available, rather than purchased as a complete system from a supplier of computer systems, ensures the success of Microsoft Windows that had taken almost all other rival operating systems to near extinction. In mid-1990 for any manufacturer, the introduction of a new operating system its rival had become too risky. Even if an operating system was technically superior to Windows, would be a market failure (BeOS and OS / 2 for example). Microsoft continued delivery of the commodity cost personal computer software to the vast majority of computer users, while Apple was delivering a engineered, but expensive, experience. Apple was based on high profit margins and never developed a clear answer. Instead, sued Microsoft for using a graphical user interface similar to the Apple Lisa in Apple Computer, Inc. v. Microsoft Corporation. The case dragged on for years before he was expelled from the court.

The decade 2000-2010

For 2001, Microsoft has about 95% of desktop computers and small business "locked-in" in their technology. Moreover Open Source projects are getting a little attention and in 2000 Open Source Development Labs (OSDL) was founded as a nonprofit organization supported by a global consortium of the task to "accelerate the deployment of Linux for enterprise computing." Its objectives include "to be the recognized center of gravity for the Linux industry." Linux Foundation was founded in 2007 by the merger of the Open Source Development Labs (OSDL) and the Free Standards Group (FSG). The Linux Foundation sponsors the work of Linux creator Linus Torvalds and is supported by leading Linux and open source companies and developers around the world. Linux Foundation promotes, protects and standardizes Linux by providing a complete set of services to compete effectively with platforms closed. "

Microsoft does as well as open architecture PC (IBM clones and homebrew equipment), combined with open source system Linux OS could threaten its dominance in the web. How can this happen? Well, the same way that Microsoft has hit its dominance in the market:

1. Open architecture was inevitably going to spread in the market by its very nature (remember the generation home PC from the closed architecture of Apple Mac)
2. Microsoft did finally anything about pirated copies of Windows until Windows XP

Linux is an open source, so any company or person could create a distribution for any purpose. Also the fact that Linux can be easily modified to run on any kind of "architecture" was the reason why the war over who dominates web / file servers, mission critical systems, data centers lost by Microsoft as Linux Unix smoothly replaced in those areas. Every interaction we have with the site and any Internet infrastructure in general, is fed into a "Monopoly" way Linux servers. Thus began a precaution "war" on the desktop / netbooks market for the sake of survival. This is called FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt). On November 16, 2005 OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) project drew much attention when Nicholas Negroponte and Kofi Annan unveiled a working prototype of the Children's Machine 1 (CM1) World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) in Tunis Tunisia. Microsoft, not so …. who tried to kill (Why Microsoft and Intel tried to kill the XO $ 100 laptop)

On the other side, Apple, have learned many painful lessons (1986-1998) tried to fit your car in the next era of open architecture with open source projects. March 24 2001, he announced Mac OS X is based on the Mach kernel with certain parts of FreeBSD and NetBSD Unix application built on Nextstep. They also began a successful transition PowerPC architecture to the architecture of the PC. But wait … does not mean that Apple was embracing the open philosophy. Nobody is allowed to make their home in the generation of Mac Even if the core is based on open source projects, Apple was more interested in providing third party developers with access to internal code in creating a community where developers write its operating system for it. … Again, not for being caught in 8% market share. To overcome this problem on profitability, January 9, 2007 by Apple Computer Inc. dropped the word "Computer" from its name to better reflect its movement in the broader field of consumer electronics. The same day, he announced the iPhone, a smartphone and multimedia capabilities of the Internet Engineering in a secret and unprecedented collaboration with AT & T Mobility-Cingular Wireless at the time.

Apples habit to control everything, was not changed at all with these new product line:

• Carrier lock-in with the SIM lock -. The iPhone normally prevents access to your media player and web features, unless it has also been activated as a phone with an authorized carrier, as of other smartphones that do not issue one.
• development third-party software – Apple strictly controls freedom of creative developers, by any means. Developers to develop native applications for the iPhone has to pay an Apple Developer Connection membership fee. Developers are free to set any price for their applications to be distributed through the application Store, you will receive a 70%. The problem starts when a developer creates an application that is much better and intuitive iPhone software package. If this happens to be true, Apple is exempt from the prohibition of its application in the App Store (see: iPhone developers frustrated with App Store)

With the above attitude, Apple excluded carriers and especially to developers who wanted more freedom to unleash their creativity. Someone saw it coming … and I mean someone Google. Some very interesting historical events began to reach the news media. As written in Wikipedia, in July 2005, Google acquired Android, Inc., a startup based in Palo Alto, California, USA. At the time, little was known about the functions of Android Inc. other software that made for mobile phones. This began rumors that Google was planning to enter the mobile phone market.

Google Chairman / CEO, Eric Schmidt, in response to the rumors with a press conference on November 5, 2007, unveiled its vision of a software, Open device open Open Ecosystem:

"This announcement is more ambitious than any single 'Google Phone' that the press has been speculating nearing the last few weeks. Our vision is that the powerful platform we're unveiling thousands of different phone models. This partnership will help to release the potential of mobile technology billions of users around the world. A new approach to fostering innovation in the mobile industry will help shape a new computing environment that will change the access so that people and share information in the future. "

In Google, the team directed by Andy Rubin developed a mobile device platform powered by the Linux kernel that are sold to phone makers and carriers on the premise of providing an expandable flexible system. On November 5, 2007, the Open Handset Alliance was announced, a consortium of 71 hardware, software and telecom companies devoted to promoting open standards for mobile devices, including Texas Instruments, Broadcom Corporation, Google, HTC, Intel, LG, Marvell Technology Group, Motorola, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Samsung Electronics, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile. Along with formation of the Open Handset Alliance, OHA also unveiled its first product, Android, a mobile platform based on kernel version Linux 2.6. On December 9, 2008, it was announced that 14 new members will join the Android project, including PacketVideo, ARM Holdings, Atheros Communications, Asustek Computer Inc, Garmin Ltd, Softbank, Sony Ericsson, Toshiba and Vodafone Group Plc. From the October 21, 2008. Google opened the full source code (including network and batteries phone) in an Apache License. With the Apache license, providers can add, if you will, without proprietary extensions presentation back to the open source community.

That was it … Android Linux began to quickly gain a lot of attention and according to NPD Group, the unit sales of smart phones Android OS ranks first among all mobile OS smartphones sold in the U.S. in the second quarter , 2010, 33%. BlackBerry OS is the second at 28%, and the SOI (Apple) ranks third with 22%. (See Reuters). These results are reasonable as Android is sold by several manufacturers in all worlds companies, while the iPhone is sold only manufacturer and only on a single network company. As summarized in his blog, Louis Gray provides some reasons why the Android platform could exceed sales IOS platform:

• Selection: Selection of phones. Choice of carriers. Choice of manufacturers
• Momentum: Android has momentum in terms of improving quality in terms of number of devices sold and users, applications, which are growing in numbers, soon to be followed by quality. The growth in the number of terminals, carriers and users drive more developers to the platform, and dissidents who are not there to finally make the change
• Cloud: The phone is designed to leverage the data stored on the Web is the idea that the user need not be tied to your desktop computer to manage data on the phone.
• Capacity: The Android platform, as any offer ad, simply over and nature is capable of doing more.

The trend certainly seems to support the idea of a continuous growth of Android so that Apple should look back to past mistakes and rethink the "think different" business model to compete Nathan Ingraham explains.:

The reason Apple should be concerned about new power of Android is that has been in a similar situation before, in its competition against Microsoft for home computing. Apple, of course, is the sole manufacturer and supplier of phones running the iPhone OS, while every other manufacturer is able to run Android if desired. This reflects the history of their bites Apple Macintosh operating system against Microsoft Windows. Apple is the only manufacturer that builds computers running Mac operating system, while a variety of manufacturers were able to make computers running Windows, which Microsoft helped to flee with his head on the back war OS in early 1990.

Recent data AndroLib.com worth mentioning. The present company sizes (by the time of writing this article) suggest Android Market application is about to hit the target 150.000 at any time. On July 12, Google publicly announced a new project called Inventor application. inventor of the application will not replace or even threaten the traditional development model. application Inventor's goal, says Abelson The Times, is "to allow people to become creators, not only consumers in this mobile world."

"The Google project, Mr. Abelson said, is to give users, especially young people, a simple tool that will can play with smartphone software, as well as people have done with computers. Over the years, he said, simplified programming tools as Basic, Logo and Scratch have opened the door to innovations of all kinds. "

Conclusion …

To sum up, Android Linux be the universal platform that will enable all devices to connect with millions of other devices and share information among themselves …. a complete wireless network devices. This is because:

• Multiple devices can run Linux
• Linux is open source, and everyone can participate in.
• Multiple manufacturers to build devices that run Android
• Linux belongs to the "humanity" and not a single company.

Human nature is reflected in every aspect of our society. We love to explore, investigate, invent new ways to make our lives easier and we do it urge to share this knowledge with others. The shamans and alchemists were the first explorers of material nature and the "invisible" forces that dominated. The knowledge he possessed was his strength, well cared for and protected from any ignorant attempt to "steal" it. His apprentice were the only heirs this knowledge. In this case, knowledge is generated by a few and only in personal gain and not the society as a whole. This is a "closed source" model as a method of producing knowledge. Due to the nature of human beings to share the information produced, slowly but inevitably this method been replaced by a new and more open. Science as opposed to esoteric knowledge, uses the opposite approach to knowledge production. The knowledge and the source of it (the way in which it occurs) is available to anyone. In this way the "fire" was invented the only ones. Anyone have knowledge it invented something new. This is a standard, "open source" method for generating knowledge.

Industry software and hardware is approximately 100 years. It is in the nature of human beings to change the model to produce innovative products of a closed ecosystem (like alchemists did) in a more open ecosystem model (as scientists do). The use of open standards over the years becomes more apparent. Linux is gaining ground every Again, not only because it is another software, but it is the ideal platform that allows more ideas and solutions in all areas of Science and Technology. Microsoft, Apple and other companies that make the same mistakes over and over again if he did not learn from past mistakes. Maybe that's why IBM is involved with the telephone industry mobile. In a recent post, August 9, 2010, by Jean Staten Linux.com IBM Healy explains the situation:

Businesses and consumers are fast create a mobile world – there will be nearly one billion devices connected to the Internet in 2011 – and open standards like Linux are needed for this new world of work. Embedded Linux runs on almost all smart phones today and help support the mobile data 20 times and 40 times more spending on mobile transactions is expected to occur in 2015. Consumers do not know Linux is on their phones, but the developers. The proliferation of smart phones like the iPhone Droids and predicts the development of applications for the Linux mobile platform is only set to grow, a recent survey of Eclipse showed that 33 percent of developers use Linux as main operating system development, up from 20 percent in 2007.

Apparently they have learned something from his past. Thanks for your patience and hope you enjoyed my article.

If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas.

George Bernard Shaw

Irish playwright and socialist (1856 – 1950)

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